Dear friends -
(My inner grammar nerd protests: “You haven’t seen anything so far...”)
Before I dive in: in earlier emails, I have harped on how essential Wisconsin is… and all signs point to it being battleground number 1. In a special, private event for you, dear reader, YOU! -- I will be interviewing Ben Wikler, chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, next week, October 15th, at 4pm ET via Zoom. RSVP here to join me as I pepper him with my questions and invite you to ask your own questions. Two weeks out from the election it will be a view from the ground that you won’t get from the New York Times, Rag of the Liberal Establishment.
The days really are just packed. The President’s Taxes, Debate, and Covid diagnosis. Also a Supreme Court confirmation fight, expiration of pandemic relief, Breanna Taylor’s grand jury transcripts, and much, much more. Not to mention the countless other important stories swallowed up by the black hole of Trump Speculation in all its myriad forms.
I hate to tell you this, but Rule 1 still holds: it will get crazier. And the reason it will get crazier is (simply put) no one has any incentive to behave -- including the American People writ large. Trump isn’t a cause, he’s a symptom, and the disease runs deep. Nevertheless the first step towards a better future for my children (because it is, after all, all about me and mine own) is electing a new president. It’s just a very small first step. It’s going to be a hell of a decade. Personal courage, sound nerves, stark beauty. Stock up.
Despite my own obsessions and unwelcome distractions, I have tried to clear my head this morning with as clear and cold an eye as the crisp autumn air allows to look at the state of race:
Consistency: In the last 18 months, the polls have barely budged: Trump is a historically unpopular president whose election strategy is to fire up his base using racism and conspiracy theories. Even though I told you months ago to ignore the polls, we can look at them as an aggregate over time to see trends -- and the trend is pretty clear: Trump’s ceiling is about 40% of the vote (or at least what we think the voting popular might look like this year).
Momentum: To the extent that the polls have shown us anything new, it’s that the very slight momentum is in Biden’s direction. Once you leave the presidential level, that momentum is much more pronounced: people are going hard for Democrats in House and Senate races -- even if they’re still on board with Trump. Last week I mentioned we were beginning to see this in various House races, and over the weekend I saw some internal polling from various campaigns that suggests the momentum towards Democrats is accelerating.
Money: Biden is dramatically out-raising and outspending Trump -- by a 3 to 1 margin. Look at reported September spending in some of the key swing states: In Florida, Biden has spent $29M to Trump’s $16M -- almost double. In Arizona, Biden has spent $12M to Trump’s $5M -- more than double. And the kicker is Michigan, where Biden has spent $12M to Trump’s $4M: a three to one spending advantage. Meanwhile Biden had the best fundraising month on record, while Trump did not. Going into August, the campaigns were about equal in terms of money, but right around the conventions the Democrats begin to raise a lot more money than Republicans and the trend has continued and intensified.
Supreme Court confirmation: Speaking of intensified, the limited evidence on hand shows that the Supreme Court vacancy has fired up the Democratic base much more aggressively than it has fired up the Republican base (which is unusual; usually the Republicans get more fired up about the Courts). The clearest way to see this change in enthusiasm is to look at the money that has poured into Senate campaigns since Republicans announced their intention to fill the vacancy immediately.
Catastrophic pandemic response: The one thing that Trump desperately wants America to not think about is the pandemic and his administration’s catastrophic response. And now he has the coronavirus, and it appears that his Supreme Court nomination announcement was a super-spreader event. All of this news is happening at the same time that the Republican Senate refuses to pass an economic relief bill for the millions of households suffering from the economic impact of the pandemic. Coronavirus is -- and should be -- the issue fore-front of everyone’s mind, and that is bad news for the party in charge who has been denying reality and deflecting responsibility for making America possibly the worst place in the entire world for the pandemic.
In last week’s missive, I was beginning to feel pretty optimistic about the election. Historically, close Senate races break as a group — all in one direction. A couple emails ago I mentioned the 1980 presidential election, where an unpopular president lost by a significant margin -- and took 12 sitting Senators with him, including some previously unthinkable giants of the Democratic Party. All signs point to this presidential election being a fundamental re-ordering of American politics. If 1980 brought us the Reagan Revolution, which led to Gingrich’s House and McConnell’s Senate (and to Fox News and President Trump, sort of), then 2020 is shaping up to have similar long-term potential. It’s time to expand the map and go hard after Senate seats like Alaska, Alabama, Kansas and Mississippi -- all of which are much, much closer than they should be. I’ve written up a brief assessment of these Senate races here -- and remember: it's been almost 100 years since Kansas sent a Democrat to the US Senate, and it looks like it might happen. You can also skip my assessment and just give some money here. Money actually matters right now.
But don’t start celebrating. We’ve got a lot of work to do, because many obstacles remain:
Electoral college: Our system of government is designed to structurally favor the minority in both the Senate and the electoral college. In recent days the speculation among many obsessive political types is that this election could end up in the House of Representatives -- a political mentor of mine, Chet Atkins, told me that he thinks this looks more like the election of 1876 than the election of 1980. According to the Constitution, if there is an electoral college tie, then the House of Representatives decides. But crucially it is not a straight majority vote; it’s done on a state-by-state basis. So even though Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives, they don’t have a majority in the state delegations. Take the House delegation from Wisconsin, for example: 8 Members of Congress, but five of them Republicans. This is why Nancy Pelosi has been shifting the focus of her strategy to winning races in states that would give her a majority in state delegations. Note that Pennsylvania and Michigan are both 50/50 in their respective state delegations.
Voter suppression: As the odds of victory look slimmer, the GOP is turning to even more aggressive voter suppression tactics. I know it’s tough, but steel yourself and go back and watch the last five minutes of last week’s presidential debate. Trump is deliberate and effective in undermining the integrity of our elections -- a signal that many Republican leaders understood. Using the pandemic as an excuse, on Friday Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced that each county would have just one drop-off for mail-in ballots. So Harris County with 4 million people (home to Houston, the fourth largest city in the US) has just one ballot drop-off location -- as does Loving County, with a population estimated at 134. That’s right, 134. But if the GOP is nervous enough about Texas to take this kind of action, it makes you wonder.
Racism: Throughout the course of this newsletter, I have traced the central role of racism in Trump’s argument for reelection -- so it was no surprise that he refused to condemn white supremacy in the debate (and in follow-up press conferences). His strategy is clear: fire up his base as dramatically and aggressively as possible, and turn off everyone else. Wisconsin is particularly interesting in this regard and I’ll be asking Ben about it.
Information pollution: Meanwhile, underneath it all, the internet still simmers (maybe even boils?) with a toxic stew of conspiracy theories and misinformation, evaporating the truth and distilling fear and uncertainty. Aided and abetted by foreign governments and even our own media outlets, the madness continues to metastasize, mostly out of sight but, like termites, gnawing aggressively away at our shared sense of what it means to be a country.
Rule 1: And finally… it will get crazier. We’ve got about a month left. There will be more twists and turns, you can count on that. A couple weeks ago I outlined a few of the potential events that could happen in the remaining weeks -- one of which was that someone important in the administration contracts COVID -- and there is still plenty of time for more madness and volatility. Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men?
Do not panic. Confidence is essential. Personal courage, sound nerves, stark beauty. Make sure you vote and get people in your life to vote (I guarantee some of them won’t vote without your encouragement). Give some money to expand the map with these Senate races. And RSVP to join me next week on October 15th at 4pm to talk to Ben Wikler, chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin.
Thank you for everything you do for our country - and lots of love - nicco
PS. More on Ben: Three years ago, shocked by Trump’s victory in his home state, my old friend Ben Winkler left a promising career in Washington DC to move with Beth (his wife) and three young children back to Wisconsin. He understood that the Democratic Party infrastructure in Wisconsin had atrophied and needed to be rebuilt from the ground up. He became the head of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin and has been making all the right moves over the last couple of years: attracting top talent; building impressive data and digital infrastructure; supporting local leaders to have real grassroots turnout power. I wish all the state parties had young, dynamic leaders like him. You can read more about his work in this New York Times article: “Look to Wisconsin for Lessons on a Digital Campaign During a Pandemic.” Pretty much any way you cut it, the 2020 election goes through Wisconsin. Join me next week, October 15th, at 4pm ET via Zoom for a private chat with Ben.