Miles to go before we sleep

Dignity is still elusive in America

Dear friends -

As a bearded person, I was transfixed by the big news this week: Archaeologists in Israel have found the oldest known sentence in our alphabet, and the sentence is on a beard comb. It reads: "May this tusk root out the lice of the hair and the beard.” Just in case you were wondering: I have never had beard lice. (And if you want a fascinating podcast on the history of the alphabet, try this.)

Beyond the news in beard lice and the history of language, it was a pretty busy week on three major topics where I’m known to obsess: political campaigns, cryptocurrency, and social media. Where to begin? Well, the election, of course.

The Pundit Industrial Complex was shocked by the outcome: there was no red wave. All manner of historical precedent broken. As of this writing, we still don’t know the outcome of control of the House and several other races (top of mind is the Arizona Governor’s race). Most likely we’re still looking at Republican control of the House of Representatives, but by the thinnest of margins. Which means Rule 1 will still hold. Don’t fool yourselves, we’re not out of the woods yet:

1. Georgia still matters: Do not fool yourself into thinking Democrats control the Senate yet; technically a 50/50 Senate requires bi-partisan power-sharing. In the last Senate, that meant Republicans blocked a January 6th Commission — it’s why that job was taken up by the House of Representatives. A Democratic victory in the Georgia run-off is hugely important because a 51-49 does not require power-sharing — which Democrats will want if a Republican House pursues impeachment and other wastes of time and money.

2. The country is dramatically divided and Trump isn’t going anywhere. For the first time in a decade, Republicans won the national popular vote. We don’t know the exact number yet, but it looks to me like the GOP will win the House popular vote by roughly 4%. In any other world, Fox News would be going wild with celebration at a +4 national vote with major gains among Hispanics and African-Americans. But this turnout happened mostly in places where it didn’t help the GOP win seats— Florida, for one.
   
   Indeed, the math of this election is puzzling to pundits and runs contrary to the larger narratives they’ve been feeding us. The white working class in the midwest went for Democrats while in the Democratic stronghold in New York, Republican turnout was 11.8% higher than it was in 2020. Chuck Schumer, Senate Majority Leader and longtime Democratic stalwart, had one of the closest elections of his career — as did Chuck Grassley, longtime conservative GOP hero of Iowa. The Pundit Industrial Complex fretted over Michael Bennett losing his seat in Colorado, and worried about Patty Murray in Washington State — but ultimately they won their races by wider margins than Schumer.

3. It’s the economy, stupid. So what’s going on? Certainly Americans — even in deep red Kentucky — were pretty clear they want safe, legal abortion. That’s going to be a challenge for the GOP for the foreseeable future. I’m considerably more skeptical of the notion that “democracy won” and that people — especially independents — tired of the “crazy”. It seems to me that voters responded to Biden’s focus on jobs and the economy, and that was more important anything else. I am picking up hints that we’re seeing a fundamental shift around corporate power and poverty in America. For the first time in a generation, the Michigan state government is Democratic — and their first priority is to repeal a couple decades worth of anti-union legislation.
   
   I have been working on a new business to reinvigorate community newspapers, and in the process I’ve visited some different parts of the country over the last year. One thing stands out: when you leave the big cities (whether it’s Houston or Boston), America gets pretty poor, pretty quick. A couple years ago, the book Dignity caught my attention. A combination of photography and essays, the book gets to the lost heart of America. Chris Arnade, the author, describes the gap between the “Front Row” and the “Back Row” in America. Disgraced former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards described it as “Two Americas”. Of course, the flip side of dignity is humiliation, which breeds anger. If Democrats can stay focused on the realities that Americans face every day — while a Republican House decides to spend your tax dollars on pointlessly impeaching Biden — Democrats may yet forge a firm majority in this country.

4. Trump vs. Fox: I have argued in this email in the past that mainstream media in America is right-wing media. Rupert Murdoch, the least accountable man in America, has definitely turned all the publications he owns against Trump, favoring DeSantis as the GOP standard-bearer. WE all know Trump loves a good fight. Who will win? I have no idea. But it is arguably the most important political fight happening right now.

5. Campaign tactics on the move: As the data gets poured over, we’ll learn a lot more, but two things stand out to me. First, the Senate Democrats campaign arm spent more on field organizing than they did on television ads — for the first time ever. This is earth-shattering news in political consultant land which has long been dominated by television and the astronomical spends associated with mass media. In another strange turn, Republican campaigns almost completely ceded digital campaigning to Democrats this cycle, after dramatically outspending Democrats in digital media for the last two political cycles, .

You’ll have to wait until my next email for an analysis of all the craziness in crypto land and by then there should be some more crazy Twitter news.

Thank you for everything you do for this country — nicco

ps. It is not too late to join us tomorrow night in Boston for poetry from local leaders! Join us!