Dear Friends -
My late grandfather introduced me to many things -- the Desolation Wilderness, how to use a rock saw, how to build a log cabin, Louis L'Amour, P.G Wodehouse, escargot -- but perhaps first and foremost there was Tom Lehrer. A chemical geologist, my grandfather offered me a substantial sum of money if I memorized Tom Lehrer’s ‘The Elements’, which to my regret I did not. Tom Lehrer is now 92 -- with a formidable mathematical and musical legacy.
I thought of Tom Lehrer’s 2002 comment this week: “Things I once thought were funny are scary now. I often feel like a resident of Pompeii who has been asked for some humorous comments on lava.” As the pressure continues to build, here are some comments on ‘lava’:
Ignore the polls: Today, FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast has Biden winning 87 of 100 scenarios. Exactly four years ago today -- October 18, 2016 -- FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton an 88.1% chance of winning. Way back in June, I explained why you shouldn’t believe the polls -- we’ve got an addiction to polls, and it gets in the way of our participation in actual politics.
Now before loyal reader Joel goes ahead and blames me for being a Biden Bedwetter, let me be clear: this isn’t 2016. Trump is President and bears responsibility for the incompetent handling of the pandemic. Back in August, I went out on a limb and said America is a failed state -- and the latest report out of the CDC adds fuel to this argument: Dr. Deborah Birx -- ostensibly in charge of the nation’s coronavirus response -- was able to get data on every case of coronavirus from every hospital in Malawi … but not the United States.
This may not be 2016, but we’ve also never had a President with a floor for negatives in the high 30s/low 40s and a near cult-like ‘hell or high water’ set of followers fed by a media ecosystem hermetically sealed off from reality. Nevertheless, Trump is president (with all the responsibility that entails) and Hillary Clinton (with all her baggage and sky high negatives) isn’t on the ballot. The structure of 2020 is different, but don’t tell that to Trump’s minions still scrounging for smoking gun emails of dubious provenance. If you missed my interview with Ben Wikler, chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, it’s clear that the race remains close in the battleground states. Ben told us detailed stories about the challenges they face with voter suppression; the unknowns of voting during a pandemic; and the continuing strength of Trump’s base. He had hopeful stories, too, about the progress they’ve made mastering logistical hurdles to bring people to polls and channel enthusiasm into new registrations -- but the hurdles are formidable. I hope you’ll support the work of the state party with whatever you can give.
The country is weakened and further divided by an outdated political system. (An essay I co-authored on this subject back in 2007 has continued resonance today.) A clear majority may support the Democrats, but that’s not the system of government we have. For Democratic victories, the margins must be run up, as there is no comfort (and surely no victory) in winning the popular vote alone. Still, Jeff Roe, one of the smartest Republican political consultants I know (and campaign manager for Ted Cruz’s presidential run) called this election “such a meatball that I don’t think people can resist taking a bite out of it and participating.” So do your part and get everyone you know to vote.
Counter(factual) Narratives: Prior to the Republican convention, I wondered if we’d hear about QAnon as part of their regularly scheduled program. We certainly heard about it during this week’s town hall with Trump. Questioning him about QAnon and other conspiracy theories he seems to support, Savannah Guthrie had to remind the President: 'You're the President! You're not someone's crazy uncle who can retweet whatever.' Don’t tell that to Mary Trump.
After writing that email about QAnon back in August, I heard from several readers of this newsletter who related stories about how the conspiracy theory was tearing their family apart. Some of you have no experience of it -- but it is now a part of mainstream American life, and it’s dangerous. The Atlantic argued it is a new American religion -- one where Democrats are viewed as actual Satanists who worship pedophilia -- and the number of QAnoners likely to be actual Members of Congress come January 2021 is somewhere around five. For a tragic read about the state of American politics (did I mention we’re a failed state?) read this Washington Post piece about a normal every-day guy who dared to challenge a QAnon Congressional candidate. (For added context, the New Yorker profiled Marjorie Taylor Greene, the QAnon candidate who is likely to win the seat.)
Us vs. Them (aka Racism): Back in July I wrote about how Trump’s reelection message is all about race. Watching the long lines for early voting was a reminder that black people spend a lot more time waiting in line to vote than white people. In case you think that it’s just about voter suppression and not about systemic racism in every part of American life, let me remind you that Black homeowners pay more in mortgage interest, mortgage insurance and property taxes than other homeowners and that contributes to roughly half of the retirement savings gap Black people experience. Keep fresh before me the hour of my highest resolve.
The Senate: I remained obsessed with the dynamic state of the Senate races around the country, which interest me so much more than the Presidential election. If we end up with a close Senate -- 50/50 or even 53/47 -- every single Senator will have the power to make or break federal policy, and they’ll all know it. But controlling the Senate will staunch the bleeding, allowing a President Biden to make meaningful progress while making up lost ground on everything from climate to judgeships. I wrote about some key races back in late July and again two weeks ago; I’ve paid special attention to Maine as it is closest to home for me. Two things I noticed with these races this week:
In a classic debate move, both Senate candidates in Iowa were asked about the price of corn and soybeans. The Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield, knew the answer… but the Republican incumbent, Joni Ernst, did not. The debate moderator even prompted Ernst, “You should know this...would you care to give it another try?” These kinds of debate questions were once common in the presidential debates, although my favorite example is the Spread Fred campaign in Vermont ("How many teats a Holstein got?"). And now, in Iowa, the Democratic candidate is running ads that say: “My name is Theresa Greenfield. I’m a scrappy farm kid who always knows the price of corn and soybeans” -- a gift for a campaign whose main argument is that Ernst went to DC and forgot about Iowa.
Can a Democrat win in South Carolina? Jaime Harrison needs to bleed off some of Lindsay Graham’s support, and they’re unlikely to go to a Democrat. Harrison’s campaign -- now the best funded Senate campaign in American history -- is running ads that the third party candidate, Libertarian Bill Bledsoe -- is “too conservative” for South Carolina, as if that were possible. Smart move for Harrison… but will it work?
Here’s a smattering of other bits that caught my attention this week:
Remember 2016? Way back in 2017, I invited Suzie Banikaram to be the first documentary filmmaker in residence at the Shorenstein Center. Her film about the media and Trump in the 2016 election is now available on Vice News’ YouTube channel, and I recommend you take an hour of your day and watch it. It is amazing how much I have forgotten about the 2016 election.
The Olds: Watching some of the Senate Judiciary hearings this week, I realized that Amy Coney Barrett was two years old when Pat Leahy became a Senator. I wrote last week about the ancient political leadership of the United States. I am inspired by this Twitter user: we need a constitutional amendment that each state should have an allocation of 100 years of total age for their senators. If you send Dianne Feinstein or Chuck Grassley, then you must send a 13 year old for your other senator.
Money, Money, Money: How would you spend $432 million in 18 days? That’s the dilemma of the Biden campaign. Curiously, they’re spending it mostly on television while Trump outspends them on the internet. Hmmm.
Two weeks is an eternity in politics. Don’t back down. Remember: personal courage, sound nerves, and stark beauty. As we round the bend to the Election, I can’t help but check the rearview. Sometimes looking back is the best way to see a way forward. And Trump or no Trump, the challenges of a cleaved apart political landscape, fed evermore by divisive media and social media algorithms that drive people to extremes, will continue to threaten any chance for a common 21st century America. We will have work to do well beyond this particular Election. Just imagine how Roger Ailes felt in ‘74, when Nixon fell. And channel that energy like a volcano.
lotsa love, nicco
ps. There are two subjects that should be front and center in the next twelve months. First, do the tech platforms have too much power? Yes: I nearly lost my mind with anger reading this. And do the rich have too much power? Ha! You have to ask? Don’t forget one of FDR’s first acts: he put the richest Republican in America - who was also the former Treasury Secretary - on trial for tax fraud. Although I am partial to Mellon’s mustache.